【12人被捕的三種可能，兼尋果洲群島目擊者】
(Engish version below)
12港人失蹤一個月，音訊全無。家屬和律師們除了盡力確定他們如今身處何方，同樣重要的是想方法了解他們失蹤的經過。
根據各方消息，12人是在8月23日早上七點至九點多這段期間，一起於香港東面水域失蹤的。
郭卓堅引述的「目擊者」指，12人是於該日早上八點多九點，於香港水域內果洲群島東南面的「一尺排」（或稱「一尺石」）停船期間，被一艘高速駛至的白色中國海警船越境逮捕。
中國海警則指，12人是於當日早上九點多，於北緯21°54'00''，東經114°53'00''的中國水域毗鄰區被捕。
兩點相差約66公里，即35.6海浬。
先假設兩個講法都正確，有一個可能是中國海警先在香港水域內控制12人，再把他們帶到中國水域毗鄰區遊一圈，以掩飾越境執法的事實，再帶到深圳扣留。
但是，根據維基百科「中國海警」條目，近40艘中國海警船中，航速最快的是行25節的2901號，即時速46.3公里。就算用最高速航行，也要近個半小時才能行完66公里。如果按郭引述的「目擊者」說的時間地點，即海警和12人於早上九點仍在「一尺排」，則似乎不能如海警公布那樣，於九點多出現在所指的中國水域毗鄰區。
第二個可能是，中國海警在「一尺排」控制12人後，直接就帶回深圳，根本未有在所說的時間和地點駛到毗鄰區，提供資料只為轉移視線。
第三個可能是，郭引述的「目擊者」說謊，中國海警沒有越境在「一尺排」拉人，而是在中國水域及毗鄰區成功追截12人。
要向真相前進一步並非不可能，一係證明郭卓堅錯，一係證明中國海警錯。要證明郭卓堅錯很簡單，海事處只需公開8月23日早上果洲群島「一尺排」附近的雷達紀錄，指出並沒有他聲稱的船隻活動即可。這亦是家屬早前到警察總部報案的要求。
在此也呼籲目擊者和知情人士繼續報料。
中國海警船條目：https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E6%B5%B7%E8%AD%A6%E8%88%B9
[3 possibilities re: the arrest of 12 HK youths, looking for witnesses to the arrest near Ninepin Islands]
12 Hong Kong people disappeared a month ago and there has been no news since. In addition to trying their best to determine where they are now, the family members and lawyers are also importantly trying to understand the details of their disappearance.
According to various sources, the 12 people disappeared in Hong Kong’s eastern waters during the period between 7 am and 9 am on August 23.
A witness quoted by KWOK Cheuk-kin stated that the 12 people were arrested in Hong Kong waters south east of Ninepin Islands at "One Foot Row" also known as "One Foot Rock" after 8am and closer to 9am. A white Chinese Coast Guard boat approached at high speed crossing into Hong Kong waters to make the arrest.
According to the Chinese Coast Guard, 12 people were arrested in Chinese waters adjacent to Hong Kong at 21°54'00'' north latitude and 114°53'00'' east longitude at around nine o'clock that morning.
The difference between the two points is about 66 kilometers or 35.6 nautical miles.
Assuming that both statements are correct, one possibility is that the Chinese Coast Guard first escorted the 12 people from Hong Kong waters to the adjacent area in Chinese waters in order to conceal the fact that they were enforcing the law across the border, and then they were taken to Shenzhen for detention.
However, according to the Wikipedia "China Coast Guard" entry, among the nearly 40 Chinese Coast Guard ships, the fastest is No. 2901 with 25 knots or 46.3 km/h. Even at the highest speed, it would take nearly half an hour to cover 66 kilometers. If according to the time and place stated by the "witnesses" cited by Mr KWOK, that is, the maritime police and 12 people were still in the "One-Foot Rock" at nine o'clock in the morning, it seems that they cannot have been at the point stated by the Chinese Coast Guard in Chinese Waters at 9am.
The second possibility is that after detaining the 12 people at "One-Foot Row" the Chinese Coast Guard brought them back directly to Shenzhen. They did not go to the claimed adjacent area in Chinese waters and this formation was provided to divert attention.
The third possibility is that the witnesses cited by KWOK lied and the Chinese Coast Guard did not cross the border to arrest the people near "One-Foot Row" but successfully pursued and caught the 12 people in Chinese waters.
It is not impossible to find the truth. One possibility proves that KWOK Cheuk-kin is wrong and the other proves that China Coast Guard is wrong. To prove KWOK Cheuk-kin is wrong is simple, the Marine Department only needs to publish the radar records near "One-Foot Row" off the Ninepin Islands on the morning of August 23, stating that there was no vessel activity as he claimed. This was also the request of the family when they reported to the Police Headquarters earlier.
I also call on witnesses and people familiar with the matter to come forward.
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