“By 2030, the median age of China’s population would reach 49, while that of the U.S. is 42. It will be a competition between an elderly China and a middle-aged U.S. The economic distance will only grow,” Yi Fuxian, a statistician at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, projected.
Read more: https://bit.ly/3nQ5mi1
「中國的年齡中位數在2014年左右開始超過美國,現在是42歲,而美國是38歲;到2030年中國已達49歲,美國只有42歲。所以說今後是『老年的中國』跟『中年的美國』之間的博弈,中美之間的經濟差距只會不斷的拉大。」易富賢指出。
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「舉證之所在,勝敗之所在!」
今天,疫情指揮中心,陳時中部長的國際新聞稿前,應該要有人,先幫他讀一讀我1/30,提到1/29「中國官員舉證自證己罪」這一篇...
1. 2020年一月初,中國疾控官員也是共同作者們,早就知道有「人傳人」的證據!
2. 中國明知有「人傳人」的證據,卻未依據WHO-IHR,落實早期監視通報義務,卻隱匿疫情到一月下旬?
3. WHO 未依據IHR之法定義務,進一步釐清疫情資訊,以警告各國「中國已有異常人際傳染疫情正「隔離isolation」中」,後來各國已死傷慘重,難道還認為WHO好棒棒?
4. 到底,是中國隱匿? 還是WHO失職? 還是台灣的「攻擊」?
歷史與世界人民,眼睛會是雪亮的!
*
2020/1/30 A Nan Tsai
NEJM最新論文(1/29)出爐了!竟然,掀開了天大的秘密與醜聞!
中國武漢肺炎最初傳染425個案例流行病學大公開!
中國武漢肺炎隱匿疫情的戰犯們,自證己罪/呈堂證供都在這裡?看來有人要倒大楣了!
作者群裡有幾位身兼中國中央及省市地方疾病管制單位?
1. 原來,早在2019/12月中,你們自己人可能就知道會「人傳人」?!
2. 原來,你們早就知道後來多數案例已跟華南海鮮市場無關!?
3. 可惡,2020/1月中,還騙人「不會人傳人」?「有限人傳人」? 「可防可控」?
4. 直到1/20 才被外省人北京鍾南山院士揭發武漢肺炎「會人傳人」!害全球華人2020農曆年都不用過年了!
5. 作者群裡有幾位身兼中國中央及地方疾病管制單位? 竟然還隱匿疫情到1月底?只顧著寫論文?是誰說「感控任務完成前,不應把精力放在論文發表上...」?
6. 你們到底做了什麼防疫作為?應注意能注意而有注意?坐視人群傳染觀察研究數據而不救人?
7. 到底,寫論文投稿重要?還是公共衛生防疫救人重要?是誰說「要把人民群眾生命放在第一位」?
8.公共衛生倫理與學術倫理,都需要被嚴格檢視!除了違反倫理,難道沒有違反中國傳染病防治相關法規?
9. 尊重生命是普世價值,面對武漢肺炎世紀疫災千萬難民,到底根本原因系統因素是什麼? 全方位危機處理怎麼辦?
10. 到底,誰說「緩報」、「瞞報」、「漏報」導致疫情擴散要嚴懲?
習大大,李克強,你們不該震怒嗎,不該徹查法辦嗎?
「Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia
List of authors.
Qun Li, M.Med., Xuhua Guan, Ph.D., Peng Wu, Ph.D., Xiaoye Wang, M.P.H., et al.
January 29, 2020
DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001316
Abstract
BACKGROUND
The initial cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and January 2020. We analyzed data on the first 425 confirmed cases in Wuhan to determine the epidemiologic characteristics of NCIP.
METHODS
We collected information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines of laboratory-confirmed cases of NCIP that had been reported by January 22, 2020. We described characteristics of the cases and estimated the key epidemiologic time-delay distributions. In the early period of exponential growth, we estimated the epidemic doubling time and the basic reproductive number.
RESULTS
Among the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days. In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9).
CONCLUSIONS
On the basis of this information, there is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019. Considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere. Measures to prevent or reduce transmission should be implemented in populations at risk. (Funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China and others.)」
https://www.nejm.org/coronavirus?fbclid=IwAR0LXobYPxQ1axGk7uGQF6hgYpGJqfA7cYqxysNLDtMHIa3ULclkRwfwrFU
*(2020/1/31,1205補註
《权威媒体曝武汉疫情瞒报实锤!医学教授:我已经出离愤怒了》
刚刚,新京报披露了一个令人震惊的消息:早在去年12月中,有关方面就已经知道新冠病毒,并获悉会在人与人之间传播。
据刚刚新京报刊发的文章说:新一项针对新型冠状病毒肺炎的传播动力学研究显示,2019年12月中旬密切接触者之间就已发生人际传播。此外,1月1日至11日已有7名医务人员感染。
报道说:上述研究报告于北京时间1月30日发表于医学期刊新英格兰杂志(NEJM),题为《新型冠状病毒感染肺炎在中国武汉的初期传播动力学》。作者来自中国疾控中心、武汉疾控中心等机构。
报道显示,报告收集了截至2020年1月22日已报告并经实验室确诊的新型冠状病毒肺炎病例的人口统计学特征、暴露史和疾病时间线信息。
也即是说,被抓8人,至少某些地方高层,乃至更高级别的卫生防疫系统官员,很清楚他们是被冤枉的。
这些目前并不重要,重要的在下边:
报告中的图表显示,1月1日至11日期间,武汉有7名医务人员感染。1月12日至22日期间,有8名医务人员感染。图/新英格兰杂志
新京报记者查阅发现:武汉市卫健委1月11日7时发布的官方通报显示,目前,未发现医务人员感染,未发现明确的人传人证据。1月12日官方通报中提到,密切接触者中没有发现相关病例,未通报医务人员感染情况。
直至1月20日,国家级专家组组长钟南山院士接受媒体采访时,首次证实有医务人员感染。
也就是说,在这期间,省市一级已经很清楚,但并未向社会公布。
新京报报道截图
也是在今天下午,认证为浙江大学教授,《上帝的手术刀》《生命是什么》的作者@王王王立铭,在其微博中发表了一篇《我已经出离愤怒》的文章。
文章开头他就说:是我第一次实锤看到明白无误的证据,新冠病毒人传人的证据被有意的隐瞒了!!!!
文章说,美国时间昨天,2020/1/29,新英格兰医学杂志又发表了一篇名为《新型冠状病毒肺炎在中国武汉的早期传播》的论文,提供了迄今为止最为详细的流行病学数据(425名患者的数据)。这项工作的作者是来自中国疾控中心、各地疾控中心以及其他很多研究机构的研究者。
他表示:在1月初的头几天,和华南海鲜市场无关的患者数量就开始占据绝对多数。病毒人际传播的迹象已经非常非常明确了!
其说:我的问题很简单:从这篇论文的数据来看,国家疾控中心早在一月的头几天就已经掌握了明确的病毒人传人的证据,那么从那个时候一直到1/20日这三个星期里,这个消息是在哪个步骤被掩盖了?
是疾控中心的科学家为了发表论文,对数据密不外宣?是武汉市政府为了某些需要压制数据的公开?还是什么别的情况?
@王王王立铭说:我已经快爆炸了,我需要论文的作者们给我一个解释!!!!作为掌握第一手信息的研究者,你们比公众早三个星期知道了病毒人传人的确凿信息,你们有没有做到你们该做的事情?
由于太过敏感,自己点击链接去看 (已被刪)
median age 在 國家衛生研究院-論壇 Facebook 的精選貼文
「Epidemiologic and Clinical Characteristics of Novel Coronavirus Infections Involving 13 Patients Outside Wuhan, China(2020/02/07)+中文摘要轉譯」
➥中文摘要轉譯:
截至2/4日,北京報告13例,大多為年輕健康人。症狀輕微且無人死亡。與過去報導一致,健康人感染後預後較佳。
註:初期流行病學易有偏誤,不可推估大流行時狀況。(財團法人國家衛生研究院-郭書辰醫師整理)
➥In December 2019, cases of pneumonia appeared in Wuhan, China. The etiology of these infections was a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV),1,2 possibly connected to zoonotic or environmental exposure from the seafood market in Wuhan. Human-to-human transmission has accounted for most of the infections, including among health care workers.3,4 The virus has spread to different parts of China and at least 26 other countries.1 A high number of men have been infected, and the reported mortality rate has been approximately 2%, which is lower than that reported from other coronavirus epidemics including severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS; mortality rate, >40% in patients aged >60 years)5 and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS; mortality rate, 30%).6 However, little is known about the clinical manifestations of 2019-nCoV in healthy populations or cases outside Wuhan. We report early clinical features of 13 patients with confirmed 2019-nCoV infection admitted to hospitals in Beijing.
「Methods」
Data were obtained from 3 hospitals in Beijing, China (Beijing Tsinghua Changgung Hospital, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University [8 patients], Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University [4 patients], and College of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Chinese PLA General Hospital [1 patient]). Patients were hospitalized from January 16, 2020, to January 29, 2020, with final follow-up for this report on February 4, 2020. Patients with possible 2019-nCoV were admitted and quarantined, and throat swab samples were collected and sent to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention for detection of 2019-nCoV using a quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay.3 Chest radiography or computed tomography was performed. Data were obtained as part of standard care. Patients were transferred to a specialized hospital after diagnosis. This study was approved by the ethics commissions of the 3 hospitals, with a waiver of informed consent.
「Results」
The median age of the patients was 34 years (25th-75th percentile, 34-48 years); 2 patients were children (aged 2 years and 15 years), and 10 (77%) were male. Twelve patients either visited Wuhan, including a family (parents and son), or had family members (grandparents of the 2-year-old child) who visited Wuhan after the onset of the 2019-nCoV epidemic (mean stay, 2.5 days). One patient did not have any known contact with Wuhan.
Twelve patients reported fever (mean, 1.6 days) before hospitalization. Symptoms included cough (46.3%), upper airway congestion (61.5%), myalgia (23.1%), and headache (23.1%) (Table). No patient required respiratory support before being transferred to the specialty hospital after a mean of 2 days. The youngest patient (aged 2 years) had intermittent fever for 1 week and persistent cough for 13 days before 2019-nCoV diagnosis. Levels of inflammatory markers such as C-reactive protein were elevated, and numbers of lymphocytes were marginally elevated (Table).
Four patients had chest radiographs and 9 had computed tomography. Five images did not demonstrate any consolidation or scarring. One chest radiograph demonstrated scattered opacities in the left lower lung; in 6 patients, ground glass opacity was observed in the right or both lungs (Figure). As of February 4, 2020, all the patients recovered, but 12 were still being quarantined in the hospital.
➥Author: De Chang, Minggui Lin, Lai Wei, et al.
➥Link: (JAMA) https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761043
衛生福利部
疾病管制署 - 1922防疫達人
疾病管制署
國家衛生研究院-論壇
#2019COVID19Academic
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