[BURSA REVERSED AND CLOSED OCTOBER STRONG, WALL STREET CLIMBED TO 1% OF RECORD HIGH, UPBEAT ECONOMIC AND CORPORATE DATA TO INSTILL MORE POSITIVE TONE]
Despite being overbought, we expect FBMKLCI to continue trending higher following a fresh wave of bullishness in the global equity markets (both MSCI All-World and FTSE All-World rose 1.8% and 1.7% w-o-w) as investors put aside recent uncertainties over the pace of global growth and the Federal Reserve’s intentions to end its asset purchase program. We note that global equity markets including Bursa closed October strong, after recovering from nine-week-poor-performance (with FBMKLCI finding support near 1760 level after dropping 130 points or 6.8%). Going forward, we expect local stocks to continue the solid rebound following USA economic optimism, bullish global economic (USA 3Q GDP growth/labour market/consumer confidence figures), China state enterprise reforms and Japanese liquidity pump priming which offset worries that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rate sooner than expected. End of year rotation and window dressing are also likely to push equities higher as mutual funds start selling losers and buying winners ahead of the traditionally bullish November-December-January festive seasons. Over the past week, we have seen the local stock market dip lower on profit-taking dragged by the cautious release of the latest US Federal Reserve hawkish meeting minutes and the IMF slower global growth forecast. Contrary to the earlier session sell -off, investors subsequently appeared to take a strong relief after the bullish Fed statement on USA economic strength. Positive tones can be seen in Asian region following China economic reforms despite talks of tough tightening to curb the flow of credit and burst the nation’s property bubble during the weekend’s meeting of China’s Communist party hierarchy. Meanwhile, stronger Japanese Nikkei supported by weaker yen and an optimistic tone from the Bank of Japan as well as talk that a major pension fund is looking to boost exposure into riskier assets should inspire a re-pricing of risk in the regional market and was seen as near term positive for Asian equity markets. There is a bullish report that Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, the second largest global pension fund, considered a bellwether for Asian institutional investors, will reduce holdings of bonds and add foreign equities. The S&P 500 rose 2.5% taking the equity benchmark to within 1% of September’s record closing high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average put in a stronger performance, rising 2.3%, as Nasdaq rose 3% sharply on the back of a strong earnings report. Bursa has rebounded 4.5% from 17th October low after correcting 6.8% since July all time high of 1896.23. Across the Atlantic, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose 2.1%, leaving it some 9% above a 13-month low struck two weeks ago with stocks in Milan rallying 2.3% as concerns about Italy’s banking system appeared to ease. In Asia, Hong Kong and Shanghai rallied 1.6% and 2.1% respectively amid talk of further reforms at Chinese state-owned enterprises. Finally, Brazilian stocks captured 50,000 psycho level and rebounded 3.1% in response to Dilma Rousseff’s presidential election victory. On the domestic front, Bursa and construction stocks are the strongest sector driven by Budget 2015, improved prospects for fiscal consolidation, public finance reform as well as continued order book. Although technology and construction stocks showed slow market leadership early this year, they remain the major driver of the latest reversal and have been outperforming after National Budget Day on the 10th October. Further, small cap stocks continue to show upside leadership (FBMSmallCap, FBMFledgling and FBMAce outperform FBMKLCI and remain within 2% of their record high), a sign that Chinese New Year rally is about to start and should prop risk-taking sentiment in December- January despite several snags spotted in the blue chips counters. Five major news that may catalyse Bursa includes the following (1) AirAsia Bhd to propose RM1 bil sukuk mudharabah programme to support its business expansion, administrative and operating expenses (2) Berjaya to mull IPO of Singapore unit to spur growth in its foreign business (3) TM Bhd to expand its broadband infrastructure network as part of its aggressive Johor expansion programme (4) Faber Group Bhd to become one of the largest asset development and management players in the Asean region after completing RM1.5b merger with Opus Group Bhd and Projek Penyelenggaraan Lebuhraya Bhd and finally (5) LPI Capital Bhd to sell 4 mil of its Public Bank shares. On the technical front, the latest gain for the FBMKLCI took it back above its 50-day moving average for the first time in nearly a month, and left it just 2% below a record closing high reached in the middle of September. Meanwhile, major oscillators are overbought with daily stochastics turning lower from upper line levels while MACD close to flash negative crossover reinforcing a downside break ahead especially if FBMKLCI find near term resistance at 1850 which is also the 200 day moving average. The market however could take on a defensive posture if FBMKLCI reverse down and violate 1830 support level. While there is a potential for a short term dip in the market to rebalance overbought technical conditions, the prevailing trend points up with immediate target at 1850 and 1880 level. One way to look for signs of market stress is to look at breadth figures which so far remain positive suggesting more stocks participating in the rally. Hence, we believe any weakness is just temporary and should not be construed as the start of a new crisis downleg. Given the improved market breadth (average daily trade increase to 1.8bn shares worth RM1.9bn), we expect the local market to sustain gains going forward with immediate resistance spotted at psycho resistance of 1,850, August high of 1,880 and all-time-high of 1,896 while immediate support is pegged at September low near 1,830 level followed by 1,800 and 1,770 levels to immediately cushion any deeper profit taking. Finally, for the weekly strategy, we are inclined towards buying Chinese New Year linked small cap stocks such as MyEG, Timecom, GHLSys, Hapseng, KSL, SMRT, Tekseng, IFCA, Carepls, Bornoil, Nihsin, Perstim, SHL, Luxchem. As for blue chips, traders should accumulate holiday-season-beneficiaries-stocks which do well near the festive year end such as Tenaga, TM, Digi, Axiata, Aeon, Gamuda, IJM, Bursa and KLCC.
Dato' Dr Nazri Khan
First Vice President/Head of Retail Strategy,
Affin Hwang Investment Bank
President, Malaysian Association of Technical Analyst (MATA)
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