🌻美國生活
打了疫苗後, 在上週進城了一趟.
許久未出門的感覺很奇妙. 進了城, 也感到大家的生活還是如往常一般, 只是餐廳沒甚麼人(都用電話下單, 或是當場點了東西後就走), 許多人(並不是全部)的臉上也多了個口罩. 旅館的人倒是不多. 但商家停車場的車子應該如往常一樣, 沒有減少.
每次進城, 也一定會到Chipotle打牙祭. 這次試了他們新的飯(參雜了cauliflower花椰菜), 酸酸滋味, 配上原來burrito裡面就有的料, 真的是開胃又好吃, 一口接一口.
最近吃了三家不同的burrito, 還是覺得Chipotle的最好吃. 我想原因之一(不知道我的觀察有沒有誤), 可能是他們把不同口感的配料加在一起時, 有多家一道手續, 讓新鮮脆口的生菜, 烤熟的肉類, sour cream與其他配料均勻地被融合起來, 也讓滋味豐富了起來. 不像其他家的burrito, 一口咬下去, 就是飯, 或是豆類, 分得很清楚, 而沒有不同食材所帶來的多層次的口感.
Anyway. 附上這次進城照的幾張照片在下方.
🌻My happiness project: 年報財報導讀
股市對我來說像戰場; 年報財報就像是兵書. 而一家家公司的年報財報, 對我來說, 就像是故事書一樣, 述說著公司的成長營運軌跡. 做了這些功課後, 持股也會有信心. "Buy and do homework," 是我認為投資該有的態度.
下半年時間比較多, 所以想抽一點時間出來, 跟對看年報財報有興趣的投資人一起來讀資料, 順便藉此分享我是如何抓重點&透過年報財報來做思考的. 也想要藉此來宣揚看年報財報的好處&消除投資人對英文年報財報可能會有的恐懼感. Anyway. 這只是初步的想法. 若要實行也會是九月的事情了.
不過先錄了一段影片, 解釋我是怎麼做財報內容&電話會議內容整理的: https://youtu.be/vvkrs6CiWdw
🌻本周做的功課與閱讀
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/05/blog-post_19.html
這次的閱讀中, 跟成長股比較有關的是這段. 目前成長股也被重新定價中, 所以建議成長股投資人在挑股的時候, 盡量找有現金流, 還有獲利的公司.
"That’s true even for the highflying growth stocks that have been getting hit so hard recently—as long as they have earnings. Adam Parker, founder of Trivariate Research, notes that following large growth selloffs, S&P 500 growth stocks with both free cash flow and expanding margins tend to outperform in the months ahead. That means favoring stocks like ServiceNow (ticker: NOW) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) over shares of Chegg (CHGG) and Twitter (TWTR). “Buy some growth stocks on the selloff, but they have to have positive free cash flow and margin expansion,” Parker says."
🌻投資金句
"I learned that you may be right, but if enough people believe you're wrong the markets can really hurt you." --BlackRock bond chief Rick Rieder
🌻The Future of Work
看到BofA寫的這一段, 覺得挺感動的. 這也是投資的目的之一, 能夠藉著這個方式, 來接觸到世界的脈動.
The Future of Work
Thematic Research
BofA Global Research
bofa.com
May 12: The future of work is not zero-sum between humanity and technology. We believe humans can collaborate with and work alongside robots, rather than be displaced by them, and that technology can create more jobs than it destroys. By 2025 alone, the WEF [World Economic Forum] thinks automation will add 12 million net new jobs, with robots eliminating 85 million jobs but creating 97 million new ones. Other grounds for optimism include: (1) 65% of children starting school today will work in jobs that have not been invented yet; (2) “new” collar jobs will be generated from well-placed thematic sectors like healthcare, renewables, new mobility, or even moonshot technologies; and (3) we might actually be more productive and have more leisure time if robots can relieve us of more mundane, repetitive everyday tasks. We have identified $14 trillion in market cap of enablers for the future of work. Technology, industrials, and medtech are some key beneficiaries. We also see opportunities in education and the upskilling/retraining of workers by corporates. Conversely, commercial real estate/offices and legacy transport are some of the sectors facing headwinds...
So, what are the truly futuristic jobs that could be invented? Data-privacy managers, nanomedicine surgeons, lab-meat scientists, blockchain strategists, space-tourist guides, freelance biohackers, AI avatar designers, 3D food-printer chefs, leisure-time planners, ethical algorithm programmers, and brain simulation specialists, to name but a few.
🌻Dividend Growers’ Allure
這段從股息的角度, 來講解傳統價值股跟成長股的不同處.
Dividend Growers’ Allure
Insights & Commentaries
Washington Crossing Advisors
washingtoncrossingadvisors.com
May 10: Buy quality stocks that increase dividends regularly. This simple strategy takes a long-term view of investing and focuses on the dividend, not the stock price. Passive income generated from dividend growth has two main benefits. First, it focuses your investment strategy on cash-generating, growing companies. Second, it tends to lead to quality businesses that are neither too young nor too old.
Why is this so? Almost by definition, a dividend-growing company tends to cover expenses with rising cash flow. And which companies do these tend to be? They tend to be profitable, established companies in the middle of their corporate life cycle. By contrast, young companies tend to be burning cash, constantly in need of capital, and face a higher risk of failure. Such young firms tend to not pay dividends at all as they are consumed with growth. On the other hand, older companies often funnel most or all cash to investors as dividends because viable investments can no longer be found. These firms are often in decline and offer little growth, often reflected in a high current yield.
Picture:
1. Chipotle內部. 可以看到有個取餐的架子. 餐廳人員也不時在電腦螢幕前, 看進來的訂單, 備菜.
2. 旅館外一區. 面向密西根湖.
3. CSX, Union Pacific的火車廂(這兩家都有上市)
current yield 在 許文昌 Man-cheong Facebook 的精選貼文
He said valuations in Hong Kong’s equity market are ‘very, very cheap’. Referring to the wide spread between the MSCI Hong Kong and US government 10-year yield, Moffett said that one key factor that most people miss out is that almost all the assets in Hong Kong are US dollar assets.
‘It’s very hard to fund hard currency yield anywhere in the world these days, and it’s essentially what we have here with Hong Kong equities,’ he pointed out.
current yield 在 黃之鋒 Joshua Wong Facebook 的最佳貼文
【After Winning Majority in LegCo: Beijing's Crackdown May Trigger International Intervention】
***感謝Hong Kong Columns - Translated,將我早前撰寫『議會過半想像:以「#國際攬炒」反制「臨立會2.0」』長文(https://www.facebook.com/joshuawongchifung/photos/a.313299448762570/2887650867994069/)翻譯成英文,鼓勵國際社會關注立會選舉一旦過半的沙盤推演,在最惡劣形勢下的制衡策略。***
中文精簡版本:https://www.facebook.com/joshuawongchifung/photos/a.564294826996363/2888641404561682/
Hongkongers have experienced our revolution for over half a year. They no longer take a consequentialist view to the effectiveness of their movement as they did years ago, or waste time second-guessing the intentions and background of fellow activists. Following the defensive battles at CUHK and PolyU, November’s District Council election saw a great victory of unity. More marvellous is the union between peaceful and “valiant” protesters.
In the process of resisting tyranny, the people have realised that one cannot prioritize one strategy over another. This is also how the common goal of “35+” came into being—the hope that we will win over half of the seats in the Legislative Council (LegCo) this September, such that the political spectrum that represents the majority of Hongkongers is able to gain control of legislative decisions. The political clout of Hongkongers will increase if 35 or more seats are successfully secured on our side. It is certainly one vital step to achieve the five demands within the system.
The possibility of realizing legislative majority
Technically it is not unrealistic to win a majority even under the current undemocratic system. Back in the 2016 LegCo election, we already won 30 seats. In addition to the District Council (First) functional constituency seat that is already in the pocket of the pan-democrats, as long as the candidates in Kowloon East and New Territories West do not start infighting again, we could safely secure 33 seats based on the number of pan-dem votes in 2016.
The other 3 seats required to achieve a majority depend on democrats’ breakthrough among the functional constituencies by dispersing the resources of the Liaison Office. They also count on whether the turnout this September could exceed 71.2% — that of last year’s District Council elections. Some of the factors that could affect the turnout include: will the epidemic persist into the summer? Will there be potential violent repression of protests in the 2 weeks preceding the election? Will Hong Kong-US relations be affected by the downturn of the global economy?
Therefore, the ambition of “35+” is to be prioritised by the resistance as both a means and an end. I have already expressed my support for an intra-party primary at the coordination meeting. In the meantime, it is pleasing to see the ongoing debates reaching a consensus of maximising the seats among geographical constituencies in the upcoming election.
Whilst enthusiastic coordination, we should also assess the post-election landscape and gauge Beijing’s reactions: if we do not reach 35 seats, Hong Kong will be subject to tighter control and more severe repression by China; but if the democratic parties successfully form a majority in LegCo, CCP’s fears of a “constitutional crisis” would become imminent. Hence, the key questions are how the Pan-Democrats should deal with the volatile political situation in Hong Kong and how they are going to meet Beijing’s charge head-on.
Watching out for Beijing’s dismissal of LegCo after reaching majority
To take back control of LegCo such that it faithfully reflects the majority’s principles and needs is the definition of a healthy democracy. Recently, however, DAB’s Tam Yiu-chung has warned that the plan of the Pan-Dems to “usurp power” in the LegCo would only lead to Beijing’s forceful disqualification of certain members or the interpretation of the Basic Law. This proves that winning a majority in LegCo is not only a popular conception but also a realistic challenge that would get on the nerves of Beijing. Could Beijing accept a President James To in LegCo? These unknown variables must be addressed upon achieving a majority.
While there is no telltale sign as to Beijing’s exact strategy, we are already familiar with the way CCP manipulated the Basic Law in the past 4 years. Having experienced three waves of disqualifications in LegCo, twice kicked out of LegCo with my team, and thrice locked up in jail, I have no false hopes of an easy compromise from Beijing: they would not let Pan-Dems control LegCo for half a year and wait (as is the proper procedure) until after having negatived the Budget to dissolve the legislature, and thereby giving them an easy victory in the re-elections. The greater the Pan-Dems threaten Beijing’s rule in Hong Kong, the more likely that it will trigger Beijing’s repression.
Since the disqualification and arrest of lawmakers have already become “normalised”, one can even imagine the police stepping into the LegCo building to force Pan-Dems into voting. Neither is it beyond our imagination to expect the CCP to kick out all 70 lawmakers in a fit of rage and replace them with a provisional LegCo “2.0” [HKCT note: The first was from 25 Jan 1997 to 30 Jun 1998]. To depend on a majority that could lead to a chapter of a “new testament” for One Country, Two Systems is perhaps what many elites long for, but they are overly optimistic:for a ticket to the promised land will not be available at the Chief Executive election campaign a year and a half later.
Admittedly, the Pan-Dems cannot unilaterally initiate “Laam-chaau” [HKCT note: mostly translated into “scorched-earth” mentality or “mutual destruction”; some even translated into “If I burn, you burn with us”]. The most they can do is to force a standstill of the government, and not for long the LegCo will have been eliminated from the equation to make the wheels turn again. It all leaves the plan of “Negativing the motion → Dissolving LegCo → Re-election after re-election → the stepping down of Carrie Lam” merely as overly positive speculation, probably resulting from their overestimate of CCP's capacity for rational calculation. The Pan-Dems must guard their frontlines and recognise what the biggest threat from Hong Kong to China could be. In this case, should LegCo sessions be disrupted or suspended, the Pan-Dems would have to be well prepared to surmount the expected obstacles and prevent the disqualification crisis 4 years ago—a Catch-22 indeed.
Productive tension from global intervention: Using Laam-chaau against the CCP
What aggravates the CCP the most is the potential threat to Hong Kong’s unique status as the one and only “separate customs territory”. Any miscalculation will compromise its role as the Chinese economy’s “white gloves”. Imagine if CCP were to disqualify all 70 elected lawmakers and convene a meeting north of the Shenzhen River to pass a resolution to Hong Kong’s affairs (much like the Provisional Legislative Council “1.0" in 1997), how great will the shock be in a world with an effective Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act? However hard it is to predict the future one thing is certain: With the US presidential election just around the corner, blows to the separation of powers would not be tolerated, and the West would necessarily effect countermeasures against the Hong Kong government.
Beijing has been relying upon Hong Kong to navigate the international community for decades. While clamping down on the political freedom of the cosmopolitan city, Beijing desires to maintain the financial centre’s economic freedom. Hence, we started lobbying for the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act four years ago, and today we are determined to promote “Laam-chaau” on an international scale.
The will of the voters must be reflected in an election. If a “35+” legislature were to be dismissed and replaced, such flagrant violation of democracy would assuredly cause a greater backlash than the infamous extradition bill. Knowing what the reality ahead of us could be, we have to combine our election and international strategies to oppose the placement of a 35+ LegCo with an “Emergency Legislative Council 2.0”, to advance an international “Laam-chaau” to Hong Kong’s status as “separate customs territory”. Only then will we stand a chance to resist the regime and to realise the five demands.
Adjusting our mindset: Overcoming the “constitutional crisis” to reach a resolution
Upon the realization of the “35+” LegCo, it is expected that the CCP will launch a devastating counterattack. The Pan-Dems should not expect LegCo to run normally; neither can the lawmakers realise their governing blueprints they have for Hong Kong. Rather, candidates will be able to compete against one another with visions of a liberated Hong Kong through popular vote. Bringing this point up has nothing to do with undermining the common goal of reaching a majority in LegCo, but rather channels the battle of LegCo to positive use upon the rule of law’s death and a “constitutional crisis” ahead. Knowing that Hongkongers have nothing to fall back on, all Pan-Dems should not miss the only way to the realization of “35+”.
Thus, be they partisans, nonpartisans, incumbent politicians, amateur politicians, or the civil society as a whole – if we stay in the political discourse of 2016 and continue to perpetuate old stereotypes, that is to deal with the divisions on the pan-democratic camp by favouring the most “local” faction; to consider only resource allocation and self-aggrandizement as the purpose of a LegCo campaign; to ignore how potential lawmakers are fitted to what specific roles; to turn a blind eye to the journey of resistance since last summer (extending indefinitely into the future)—They would lead as astray and cost us lose a precious opportunity for change by winning a 35+ majority.
The extent to which the pan-democrats can stay united in light of the political atmosphere since last summer is another problem that our side must to address. Before the watershed moment of 12th June 2019, many democratic delegates were trapped in the mentality of needing to “preserve people’s livelihood”, “be content of what we have accomplished”, and other strategies that favours stability. As the government refuses to heed to the five demands, whether the democrats, especially those in the functional constituencies, have the political will to go all-in is the real difficult question that confronts us in the upcoming LegCo election.
All in all, if “35+” cannot be realised, it is unsurprising to see LegCo being more heavily suppressed in the next 4 years; even if "35+" is achieved, it is questionable whether the pan-democrats are able to weather multiple attacks, verbal or physical, from the regime (judging from its power in the last four years) and utilise the international Laam-chaau strategy against the displacement of LegCo. Adhering to the motto of “we fight on, each in his own way”, I can only hope that Hongkongers in elections, street confrontations and international front can reconcile with each other, so that we may collectively compel the government to yield to our demands in the next six months. It is only by reaching a resolution before a real constitutional crisis that we can combat the institutional violence of the regime and not be devoured by it.
https://hkcolumn.blogspot.com/2020/04/joshua-wong-after-winning-majority-in.html?fbclid=IwAR216gf53pG_j9JOpDfr2GItvjLfrFSekKTPzoEs3-s9KBqvPEwz865P8vw
current yield 在 Current Yield, Yield to Maturity, Bond Prices & Interest Rates 的推薦與評價
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