關於 its time意思 ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

🌻
美國聯準會（Fed）在美東時間22日下午2時（台灣23日凌晨2時）宣布利率維持在趨近零的水準，但暗示升息可能會比預期來得快一些，同時也大幅下修今年的經濟展望。

https://udn.com/news/story/6811/5764746

🌻Adobe(ADBE)電話會議內容讀後感

ADBE前兩天發表財報了.

這次ADBE在財報後下跌, 主要是兩個原因(如下). 不過個人覺得是瑕不掩瑜:
1. 因為之前已經漲了不少(投資人期望太高)
2. 因為Digital Marketing這部分的業務受到季節性的影響, 所以表現不是很突出(沒有比預期高出很多)
a. net new Digital Media ARR (3% beat vs guide, vs 15% beat in 2Q21 vs 35% beat in 3Q20).
b. 有分析師在問(“Maybe just -- can we double-click on the seasonality commentary in the quarter? Because if we look at the beat versus guidance on net new digital media ARR, it looks, at the same time you had the weakest beat, but then the strongest guide in the last three years, which kind of speaks to and confirm some of those seasonality comments that you made.)
i. 高層對此的回答是, 主要是疫情後, 加上正值夏季, 大家的日子回復到正常&放假外出, 所以這部分的業務有受到影響(I think going into the quarter, we had expected that the consumer with a little bit more return to normalcy as what's happening in the environment.)
ii. 高層又說了一些話, 不過重點就是他不認為這是甚麼大事”So, net-net, I would say that the growth prospects for that particular business and the growth drivers remain intact. But again, very much in line. And this is what we feel good about the insights that we're getting on the business.”
iii. 也提到, Q4通常會是digital marketing業務的旺季(表現會不俗的意思)

另外, 覺得這次令我印象深刻的是, 當高層與分析師提到這些事情:
• 常在一些公司的電話會議中提到omnichannel這個字(疫情後, 更明顯了). 這次高層也有提到. ADBE可說是omnichannel概念股:
o “I mean, a big part of that is more and more companies are thirdly doing the multi-channel omnichannel, whatever they want to call it. And I think that's only going to continue to be a driver of our Digital Experience Solutions. Because today that stable stakes and so we just look at it and say whether you're shopping in-store over they are shopping online. You need a solution that treats you like a customer that we know of.”
• 網路上影片(video)的興起, 以及串流影音, 有提高了Adobe的營收天花板(用句分析師的術語, 就是TAM (total addressable market) expansion.
• 當使用者製作了越來越多的內容, 內容管理(content management)的能力就越顯重要, 內容上的流程管理(workflow)也越顯重要. Adobe的產品能夠幫內容製作者解決這樣的問題.
• 而Adobe各產品間的相容性, 標準化, 整合能力, 是它的競爭優勢之一:
o And one of the things we did really well is what we called our named user deployment and how, you know, when we have these enterprise licensing agreements, we offer enterprises the ability to download and distribute within the companies. And the more we do training and evangelism of the products, that leads to adoption. So, I would say there's an element of standardization, there's an element of more content.

而最近ADBE有個新聞, 引起了我的注意, 就是它即將在自己的平台上, 提供付款服務(payment service). 根據之前研究SHOP的經驗, 這有可能會對股價造成一定的漲幅:
On Sept. 15, Adobe announced that it will add payment services to its e-commerce platform this year to help merchants accept credit cards and other ways of paying. The move will deepen Adobe's rivalry with e-commerce firm Shopify (SHOP).
For the service, Adobe has partnered with PayPal (PYPL), which will process a variety of payment types, including credit and debit cards as well as PayPal's own payment and buy-now-pay-later offerings.
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/adbe-stock-adobe-beats-fiscal-q3-targets/

接下來該怎麼辦? 對於基本面良好的公司如ADBE, 我能說的就是buy the dip(逢低買進)了. 供參.

🌻The Facebook Files
一個星期前, WSJ上面有個關於FB的大篇幅調查報導. 有興趣的可以看看.
The Facebook Files
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-facebook-files-11631713039

這篇文章挺長, 也沒有看到華爾街中文版本的完整翻譯, 不過可以看看這篇:
https://on.wsj.com/2ZmFimp

"《華爾街日報》的相關調查顯示，這家社交媒體巨頭心知肚明，其平台會傷害用戶，而且是以該公司常常完全了解的方式造成傷害。目前，全球近半數人口都是Facebook旗下平台的用戶。其中一些證據尤其令人不安：據《華爾街日報》報導，Facebook的內部研究顯示，在報告稱有過自殺念頭的青少年中當中，有13%的英國用戶和6%的美國用戶把這種念頭歸結於Instagram。"

另一篇相關新聞:
https://www.thenewslens.com/article/156683

"《華爾街日報》於13日揭露Facebook的XCheck系統，也就是內部系統中的VIP名單，數百萬名人、政治人物與記者等知名公眾人物都在特別的一份「白名單」之內。"

"這些「貴賓」在社群上發布的內容可以躲過一般的審查系統，即使發布明顯的不當內容，也不會立即被刪除。《衛報》報導，Facebook的獨立監督委員會表示，在閱讀該篇報導後，決定要審查XCheck系統，並要求Facebook對其進行報告與解釋。"

🌻我喜歡的Apple TV影集, "Ted Lasso", 是這次艾美獎的大贏家, 很多主要演員都得獎了.

很高興這兩年, 因為有這部戲的陪伴, 讓我撐過了疫情, 家人離世, 以及一些烏煙瘴氣的事情.

前幾天看演員的得獎影片, 一位娛樂記者問得獎的男配角(也是編劇之一)說, 你覺得這部片的核心思想是甚麼. 他說, be curious, not judgemental.

就像得獎的女演員在劇中一開始是很鴨霸很壞心的球隊主人, 但這樣做是因為被前夫傷透了心, 所以想要弄垮離婚後分到的財產(也是前夫的最愛--球隊); 外表看起來永遠陽光燦爛做啦啦隊的男主角, 在青少年時父親自殺, 造成了他心裡永遠的痛&障礙(讓他在球賽時, 會有突發恐懼症).

我們每個人其實都有很多面, 很多個故事. 尤其在社群, 大家都是萍水相逢, 對彼此的了解都是非常片面的; 而有時候在社群裡, 看到有人會因為只看到一個面向, 就去下斷語. 這其實是人之常情很難避免, 所以我們需要常用第二層思考去提醒自己. 社群裡需要更多的同理心.

“Be curious, not judgmental” – Walt Whitman(惠特曼)(美國詩人)

Picture來源:
https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2021/09/apples-global-hit-comedy-series-ted-lasso-sweeps-the-2021-primetime-emmy-awards-scoring-history-making-win-for-outstanding-comedy-series/

🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment　(此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)

🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook

🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.

"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."

全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.

We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.

And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.

There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.

When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.

You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.

I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.

So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .

I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.

Here's some that I have been telling people I like:

First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.

Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.

The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.

I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.

So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.

Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.

Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.

There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.

So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051

Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.

【回應 TIME 和日本人的期待】（修訂版）
　
1.
5月下旬的時候，TIME 雜誌登了篇報導，標題是「自我感覺良好的安全感錯覺加上摸摸茶，如何擊破了台灣對COVID-19的防疫」。
　
這篇報導很全面又很詳細地寫出了台灣成功防疫了一年多之後如何產生破口的，從3+11 事件到萬華的摸摸茶到疫苗短缺，該探討的都談到了。不過台灣許多人引用這篇報導的時候都著重在標題上，好像國際在看台灣的好戲，卻很少人提到這篇報導的結尾是怎麼寫的。
　
最後一段的小標題是「從世界各國犯過的錯中取經」（Learning from the world’s mistakes）。
　
這一段的開頭先講了政府隨著疫情的嚴峻而快速採取種種措施。然後講了很有意思的一句話：「不過台灣對抗COVID-19 疫情最有效的武器可能還是人民本身。」（But Taiwan’s most effective weapon in fighting COVID-19 may be its people.）
　
接著寫了民間各種立即自發的行動，並描述一位28歲女速記員在疫情中的生活，引用她的話而結束：「如何盡可能趕快減緩疫情的蔓延，她覺得像是自己的責任。『我知道我們現在所經歷的其實都是國際上一年前就經歷過的。』她說，『只要大家一起共同努力，並遵守相關政策，我們會渡過這個難關的。』」
　
TIME說台灣防疫最有效的武器可能還是人民本身，又如此結束這篇報導，對台灣是十分溫暖又充滿期待的。
　
2.
今天看日本駐台代表泉裕泰說的一番話，他的情深意切是很容易體會的，但不知道是否有注意到他講的這句話：「現在，對抗病毒除了需要疫苗，日本也希望給台灣朋友帶來信心。」
　
是的，對抗病毒，需要疫苗，也需要信心。
而目前我們缺少疫苗，顯然也有許多人缺少信心。
　
不可否認的，今天台灣確實是有一些人是在被操弄下想要借機鬧事、設法讓台灣自亂陣腳；但也有許多人只是對國家憂心，不免急切。
　
除去那些別有用心的人不談，我覺得如果我們相信TIME 雜誌所說，台灣最有力的防疫武器本來就是人民而不是政府；如果我們接受日本駐台代表所說，防疫不只需要疫苗也需要信心，那我們每個人都還有可以做的事。
　
如果由我來說還有什麼事可以做，我會說是讓自己保持平靜。平靜地工作、平靜地保護自己、平靜地觀察情況，也盡可能平靜地發言。
　
只有平靜，在危險中才不會再誤闖絕地；
只有平靜，才不會無謂地耗費額外的能量；
只有平靜，才能在眾聲喧嘩中不迷失方向；
只有平靜，才能從世界各國犯過的錯中取經；
只有平靜，才能產生疫苗之外我們所需要的信心。
　
平靜和信心是一體兩面。信心會產生平靜，平靜也會產生信心。
　
我們應該用平靜和信心來回應 TIME 雜誌和日本人對我們的期待。
　
別的國家靠國君的權威和力量去戰勝疫情，我們卻可以靠人民的平靜和信心來渡過險關，多cool！

I thought I might cover an English song this time!
(Focus fixes itself at 0:47, sorry about that.)

When I wore this shirt for one of my live videos, a viewer asked me "Did you get in a car accident?" and "Did you get in a fight with a bear?" asked another. Rest assured, neither is the case. I bought it this way. Why, you ask? Now that is the real question.

這次想說來一首英文歌好了！
（對焦問題0:47就好了，不好意思喔！）

第一次穿這件我的直播觀眾問我「出車禍了嗎？」另外一個問「你跟熊打架了嗎？」你放心，都不是，我買這件的時候就已經是這樣了。為什麼會買這種的？那才是該問的問題;)

臉書：www.facebook.com/yakitorisutan
IG：www.instagram.com/yakitorisutan
浪Live：3177283

Notice: All music belongs to its respective owner, no copyright infringement is intended. This video is made creatively in appreciation of the original artist's work.

👉 Facebook➪ http://pics.ee/c7z0
👉 InstaGram ➪ http://pics.ee/1IhQ
👉 虎記商行 ➪ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcCtlMtKy1nr1-GUly9ZMxw
👉 虎記商行 ➪ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdG5jLLQs2M

【簡介description】
Hi everyone
大家好
I´m Jesús
我是黑素斯
Have you seen my videos?
看過我的影片嗎？
Yesterday when I was meditating
昨天我在冥想的時候
And I have something that needs to tell you
我想到一個需要告訴你的事情
Really, I really need to tell you this
真的，我不得不跟你說
Thank you Taiwan
謝謝台灣
Actually, many people say thank you, but means nothing
其實，很多人說謝謝沒有什麼特別的意思
So I want to explain you
所以我要跟你們解釋
Why do I want to thank Taiwan?
為什麼我要感謝台灣？
Many Taiwanese netizens misunderstood me
很多台灣網友誤會我
Because I often talk about cultural differences
因為我常常討論文化差異
And I won't always say
而且我不會一直說
Taiwan is awesome!
台灣棒棒！
Taiwan is perfect!
台灣完美！
I love Taiwan!
我愛台灣！
This is too fake
這樣太假的啦
However, because I didn’t say that
但是，我沒有這樣說
Some people think I don't like Taiwan
有人覺得我不喜歡台灣
Listen
我告訴你！
You were born in Taiwan just by chance
你們是不小心在台灣出生
Be a resident is my decision
當新住民是我的決定
Who cherishes this country more?
誰比較珍惜這個國家？
Recently I´m travelling a lot
最近常常出差
Last time I went to Shanghai, I found that the life there is tough
上次去上海發現那邊的生活多幸苦
Dear Chinese friends, please
親愛的中國網友，拜託
Don't start to throw shit on me. It's boring. OK?
現在不要開始罵我，很無聊，好不好？
And I don't care
而且我不在乎
Chinese are confident, great!
中國人很有自信，讚！
However, if we don´t talk about problems
但是，沒有討論哪裡問題
problems won´t disappear!
問題也不會不見！
I admire people who can live in Shanghai
我超佩服能夠住在上海的人
That place is too big
那個地方太大了
Everyplace is far away
什麼地方都很遠
They only like new things
全部都要改新的
Hey, only old things have a soul
欸，舊的才會有故事
Is terribly expensive, how can poor people lives there?
貴得要命，窮人怎麼過生活？
Taxi drivers wanna rape me off every day
計程車司機每天都想要騙我的錢
Aunts are very aggressive
那邊的阿姨，很兇
Internet, Internet. . .
網路，互聯網。。。
Wall (VPN) is not easy to pass
牆不好翻
Do not take it wrong, Shanghai also has its beauty
別誤會，上海也有上海的美
After all, my friend and ex-girlfriend are all Shanghainese
畢竟我好朋友，前女友都是上海人
But when I returned to Taiwan, I felt
但是我回來台灣的時候覺得
Very thankfull
充滿了感謝
Thank you for reasonable living expenses
謝謝合理的生活費
Thanks for the convenient internet
感謝方便的網路
Convenient transportation
方便的交通工具
Thank you for Taiwanese cuisine

謝謝台灣的美食
Thanks for Taiwan's security
感謝台灣的安全
But most of all thank you for:
但是最要感謝你們的是：
Taiwan’s human touch
台灣的人情味
Let me live my life here feels great
讓我在這邊過生活很蘇胡
Did you realize about it
有沒有發現
People doesn´ t cherish the everyday life things
我們已經習慣一個東西，就不珍惜？
Right?
是不是？
If there is food at home
家裡有東西吃
You take it for granted
你覺得理所當然
Your boyfriend gives you a macchiato every day
男朋友每天送給你一杯焦糖瑪奇朵
Yout think it is his job
妳覺得是應該的
if he doesn´t, you will complain
沒有送，妳也許會罵她
Actually, there is no such thing as "obviously"
其實，沒有所謂的『理所當然』
I lived in Taiwan for 12 years and got used to everything
住在台灣12年，我什麼都很習慣
So, needs to remind myself
所以，要提醒自己
Cherish the benefits of living in Taiwan
好好珍惜住在台灣的好處
Every day people tell me
每天都有人跟我說
Thank you for loving Taiwan so much
謝謝你那麼愛台灣
do you need thank me for liking Taiwan?
我喜歡台灣需要謝謝嗎？
When I go to the cafe for coffee, the boss won´t say
我去咖啡廳喝咖啡的時候，老闆不會說
Thank you for like our coffee
謝謝你喜歡我們的咖啡
right?
是不是？
Probablily he will way
他比較會說
Do you like it?
喜歡嗎？
Come back again
那以後常來喔
I want to thank Taiwanese government for my ID
我要感謝台灣政府給我台灣身分證
That wasn´t Wu Feng?
那不是吳鳳嗎？
Jesús, you talk a lot of bullshit!
黑素斯，你亂講一大堆！
Don´t compare yourself with Wu Feng
你不要再跟吳鳳比較
Congratulations to Wu Feng!
吳鳳恭喜！
Question
問題
Do you value living in Taiwan?
你珍惜住在台灣嗎？
What about caramel macchiato from your boyfriend?
男朋友送給你的焦糖瑪其朵呢？
What about your girlfriend´s attention?
女朋友的關心呢？
What about the food I cook for you?
阿嬤幫你煮的菜？
Oh!
唉呦！
Jesús, do you cherish me?
黑素斯，你珍惜我嗎？
Did you thank me?
有感謝過我嗎？
S***t
靠腰！
Okay
好啦
You know, right?
你知道吧
Like, Subscribe, Share with your Cat
按讚，訂閱，跟你家裡的貓咪分享
Meow!
喵！
I said Meow!
我說喵！
Meow means do it now
喵的意思是快一點啦
Meow! Meow!
喵喵！
Bye
拜！
I'm curious, do you know I'm sharing photos in IG everyday?
我好奇，你知道每天我在IG PO照片嗎？
Check it out
去看啦
I reply msn by myself
回答是我本人耶
Next week
下個禮拜
Meow!
喵！
Bye
賤！


【音樂MUSIC】
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