關於 yes or yes意思 ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment　(此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)

🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook

🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.

"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."

全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.

We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.

And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.

There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.

When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.

You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.

I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.

So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .

I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.

Here's some that I have been telling people I like:

First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.

Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.

The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.

I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.

So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.

Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.

Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.

There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.

So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051

Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.

翻聽Bob Dylan的《Desolation Row》湧起一股莫名的觸動，感覺就像走過了一條漫長的荒涼之路。頭兩句不知怎的讓我想到最近的香港：

They’re selling postcards of the hanging
They’re painting the passports brown

他們販售吊刑的名信片
他們把護照髹成啡色

然後我便分外留神聽接下來發生甚麼事：

The beauty parlor is filled with sailors
The circus is in town
Here comes the blind commissioner
They’ve got him in a trance
One hand is tied to the tight-rope walker
The other is in his pants
And the riot squad they’re restless
They need somewhere to go
As Lady and I look out tonight
From Desolation Row

美髮店擠滿了水手
馬戲團就在城後
然後來了一個特首
他們將他發入吽竇
一隻手綁住走鋼線高手
另一隻插在褲袋裡頭
還有防暴警察全在煩躁無休
他們需要某個地方抖抖
像這位小姐和我遍夜尋求
由荒涼之路口

然後找到哪裡去？似乎是酒館。

Cinderella, she seems so easy
“It takes one to know one,” she smiles
And puts her hands in her back pockets
Bette Davis style
And in comes Romeo, he’s moaning
“You Belong to Me I Believe”
And someone says, “You’re in the wrong place my friend
You better leave”
And the only sound that’s left
After the ambulances go
Is Cinderella sweeping up
On Desolation Row

灰姑娘，她似乎幾開放
「講嗰個就係嗰個。」佢笑咗
然後將雙手插進後袋
貝蒂戴維斯的風格
然後來了個羅密歐，佢喺度呻吟
「你係屬於我㗎我相信！」
然後有人話：「你來錯地方喇朋友，
你最好離開。」
然後唯一留低的聲音
在救護車走了之後
是灰姑娘的掃地聲
在荒涼之道上

我很喜歡這一種講故事的歌，因為這才叫做「吟遊」。當現在的歌失去了這種吟遊性，就空餘下一堆感質。我們已經不再用灰姑娘來形容負責打掃地方的女人，我喜歡這樣的形容，但設定跟原著是反轉的：掃完地，一到十二點，她就準時穿回自己的玻璃鞋。

然後已經好夜好夜了：

Now the moon is almost hidden
The stars are beginning to hide
The fortune-telling lady
Has even taken all her things inside
All except for Cain and Abel
And the hunchback of Notre Dame
Everybody is making love
Or else expecting rain
And the Good Samaritan, he’s dressing
He’s getting ready for the show
He’s going to the carnival tonight
On Desolation Row

現在月亮就快都看不見
繁星也開始隱淡
占卜未來的女人
甚已將她的所有東西收起
所有除了該隱和亞伯
以及聖母院的鐘樓佗俠
人人都在做愛
或其餘的在等雨
然後有個好撒馬利亞人，他在換裝
他已經準備好出騷
今晚他將會前往嘉年華
在荒涼之道上

突然輪到《哈姆雷特》的女主角奧菲利亞登場：

Now Ophelia, she’s ’neath the window
For her I feel so afraid
On her twenty-second birthday
She already is an old maid
To her, death is quite romantic
She wears an iron vest
Her profession’s her religion
Her sin is her lifelessness
And though her eyes are fixed upon
Noah’s great rainbow
She spends her time peeking
Into Desolation Row

現在奧菲利亞，她就倚在窗旁
我真為她擔心
在她廿二歲生日時
她已經是一個老女僕
對她，死亡是幾浪漫
她穿了一件鐵的背心
信仰就是她的自白
白活就是她的罪名
雖然她已定睛望着上方
那道挪亞的偉大彩虹
但她仍是費上時間來偷望
那條荒涼之路

而你有沒有聽過愛恩斯坦拉小提琴？這一個卻不是那一個，因為他太潦倒了：

Einstein, disguised as Robin Hood
With his memories in a trunk
Passed this way an hour ago
With his friend, a jealous monk
He looked so immaculately frightful
As he bummed a cigarette
Then he went off sniffing drainpipes
And reciting the alphabet
Now you would not think to look at him
But he was famous long ago
For playing the electric violin
On Desolation Row

愛恩斯坦扮成羅賓漢
帶着他車尾廂的回憶
在一小時前才經過這裡
和他的朋友、來自善妒寺的僧侶
他看起來不染得可怕
尤其在他討煙的時候
接着他走去嗅着水喉
叨唸着字母
現在你不會想望到他
但好耐之前他都風光過
奏着電子提琴
在那荒涼之路

從荒涼到荒淫？

Dr. Filth, he keeps his world
Inside of a leather cup
But all his sexless patients
They’re trying to blow it up
Now his nurse, some local loser
She’s in charge of the cyanide hole
And she also keeps the cards that read
“Have Mercy on His Soul”
They all play on pennywhistles
You can hear them blow
If you lean your head out far enough
From Desolation Row

猥褻醫生，他將他的世界
藏在一隻皮杯裡
但他所有無性的病人
他們正嘗試吹起它
現在他的護士，某個本地的失敗者
她是山埃孔的話事人
而她亦藏了一張卡片寫着
「願主垂憐他的靈魂」
他們全都玩着尖哨
你可以聽到他們在吹
如果你把頭傾得夠遠
從荒涼之道

卡薩諾瓦是意大利聞名的詩人情聖，這一段特別令我着迷：

Across the street they’ve nailed the curtains
They’re getting ready for the feast
The Phantom of the Opera
A perfect image of a priest
They’re spoonfeeding Casanova
To get him to feel more assured
Then they’ll kill him with self-confidence
After poisoning him with words
And the Phantom’s shouting to skinny girls
“Get Outa Here If You Don’t Know
Casanova is just being punished for going
To Desolation Row”

對面街他們已釘上帷幕
他們已準備好一場盛宴
《歌聲魅影》
牧師的完美形象
他們用湯匙向卡薩諾瓦灌藥
讓他稍為有安全感
然後他們用自信來殺掉他
之前用文字毒害他
然後魅影向瘦削的女孩們喊道：
「如果你不知道就請你們離開
卡薩諾瓦已經受罪因他
前往荒涼之道。」

接下來這一段，我懷疑是在描寫納粹的集中營：

Now at midnight all the agents
And the superhuman crew
Come out and round up everyone
That knows more than they do
Then they bring them to the factory
Where the heart-attack machine
Is strapped across their shoulders
And then the kerosene
Is brought down from the castles
By insurance men who go
Check to see that nobody is escaping
To Desolation Row

現在午夜所有特工
和超人類團隊
出來圍住了所有人
因為知道了不該知道的
然後把他們帶到工廠
那裡有心臟病機器
綁在他們的肩膊上
然之後那煤油
從城堡裡帶下來
有人會以防萬一
檢查一下看看是否無人能逃
逃往荒涼之路

Bob Dylan這首歌可能戲仿了英國詩人ES艾略特的長詩《荒原》，這首詩的一大特色是沒有人能看懂一個字——每個字都懂，湊起來卻不成意思。之前跟大家介紹過的艾茲拉龐德，勉強把《荒原》翻改成可讀的版本，加了很多註腳，務求令世人讀得通它的真意。這個情節，Bob Dylan也收錄在《Desolation Row》第九節裡面：

Praise be to Nero’s Neptune
The Titanic sails at dawn
And everybody’s shouting
“Which Side Are You On?”
And Ezra Pound and T. S. Eliot
Fighting in the captain’s tower
While calypso singers laugh at them
And fishermen hold flowers
Between the windows of the sea
Where lovely mermaids flow
And nobody has to think too much
About Desolation Row

讚美歸於尼祿的海王星
鐵達尼啟程於黎明
而每個人都發出喊聲
「你到底站哪一邊？」
而艾茲拉龐和ES艾略
在船長的塔上決鬥
卡利索普歌手取笑他們
漁民手執鮮花
在大海的窗戶之間
那裡有可愛的美人魚流過
此際沒有人想太多
關於那荒涼之路

是的，Bob Dylan是在模仿ES艾略特式的混亂，而在最後一節揭曉了混亂的原因：

Yes, I received your letter yesterday
(About the time the doorknob broke)
When you asked how I was doing
Was that some kind of joke?
All these people that you mention
Yes, I know them, they’re quite lame
I had to rearrange their faces
And give them all another name
Right now I can’t read too good
Don’t send me no more letters, no
Not unless you mail them
From Desolation Row

係呀，我尋日收到你嘅信
（大概在門鎖壞了的時候）
你問我最近過成怎樣
是一個需要笑的笑話嗎？
全部這些你所提及的人
係呀，我知道佢哋，佢哋都幾無趣
我需要重新構建他們的臉容
給他們全都搞混了名字
此際我已經不太擅於閱讀
不要再寄更多的信給我了，不要
除非它們是你寄自
於荒涼之路

聽過這麼多段，就像走完了一段漫長的荒涼的路，有一種想哭的感覺。Bob Dylan的音樂經常都給予的這種荒涼感，只有經歷很多的人才會有這種感覺，寫得出這種詞，流下了這滴淚。

作者

［結果都係私有化］但，點解要私有化？就解你知。

TLDR：一來就9蚊買10蚊嘢。二來，公司一路擴張業務，但資本唔夠，又集唔到資。老母想增資又受制於75%公共持股限制，咁私有化咪一了百了，私人公司點增次都得

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月頭訂最抵！2021比別人知得多。subscribe now（https://bityl.co/4Y0h）。Ivan Patreon，港美市場評點，專題號外，每日一圖，好文推介。每星期6篇，月費80，半年已1600人訂！ 畀年費仲有85折
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1. 上次寫過下廖創興，呢個「短暫停牌」一短暫就搞咗兩個星期。呼，同宇宙歷史相比都係好短暫。

2. Anyway，都係開大路嘢，私有化。原本好似有講「越秀要私有化嘅當年買就順手做埋啦」，的確係。你見當年招商買永隆，私有化除牌；坡佬華僑銀行（OCBC）買永亨，亦係除埋牌。咁但，當年有當年保持上市地位嘅理由，而家一樣可以改變主意啫。可能環境唔同，或者當初考慮得唔周到。陣間會講呢部份。

3. 作價係20.8蚊，較停牌前溢價五成。留意停牌嗰日都仲抽咗三成，「你話冇煙嘥打不如打撚死我啦」，但你估證監會唔會做嘢？梗係證據不足啦。

4. 咁講返，過去五年任何位買嘅，你都贏錢走，還好啦。至於你話個價合唔合理？超，有乜合唔合理，你受咪合理。可以唔受的，要股東會投票，但我估必定過到。特別係今年唔再係舊年咁人人股神，好多人都想套現走人算，陣間私有化唔成又跌返落10蚊邊

5. 另外留意，公告寫明唔會加價，亦不保留呢個權利。即係，take it or leave it，受就受，唔受就拉到。咁你話可唔可以20.8唔受，下個月大股東又玩21蚊私有化？梗係唔得啦，古惑仔烏鴉投長紅定阿仙奴雲加買蘇亞雷斯呀？一次衰咗，應該一年（好似係）不能重提。同樣地，legally binding 的，話咗唔加，就真係唔可以加，唔可以見勢色唔到，「唏當我冇講過」「Please ignore my previous email」

6. 咁你話，有冇公司唔出呢句嘢？有的。咁有冇試過之後真係加價？都試過，不過近年都唔多記得，要講十幾廿年前中信國金（183）（主要係中信嘉華銀行，即係而家中信銀行（國際））私有化，就真係見勢色唔對，然後再加價。

7. 咁都話，過去五年買，你任何位買都贏錢。但可能作價同好多人預期都爭好遠。當然我諗大家咁大個人，唔會以為可以重演金融海融前嗰啲咩3倍book 賣盤。但，你見寫到明，每股淨資產23.14。即係11%折讓，0.9倍book．9蚊買10蚊嘢，抵。而銀行啲資產，好多都mark to market，照計真實價值唔會同在盤數上好大分別。至於咩「商譽」（＊），冇噃，名譽呢樣嘢唔係人人可以有的。

8. 點解私有化？先講官方原因，當然少不免就係股價一路唔掂呀冇成交呀小股東好慘呀而家大股東慈悲為懷畀個機會你走就讓全世界所有罪都讓我揹。真的，每一份都係咁寫，亦即係廢話。正如啲IPO，寫公司賣點係「管理層優秀」，亦即係廢話，因為呢句係萬能key

9. 比較有意思嘅係，佢有講過去7年（即係越秀入主後），公司資產升咗3倍。留意，銀行係highly regulated 嘅生意，你冇足夠嘅資本（equit/capital），就不能畀你擴張，所以生意唔係任做，會有壓力的

10. 咁公司就話，1111呢隻嘢，根本唔會點在市場上集得到資呀（今日先知？）。如果供股呢？又會攤薄權益拖低股價喎（咁你之前又供兩次？）。既然係咁，不如私有化算啦—但留意返，私有化咗嘅銀行，當然一樣受同樣嘅條例影響，所以係咪冇分別？又唔係，因為私人公司，就可以唔使理嗰啲麻煩嘅「關聯交易」之類。BTW，供股not necessarily 會拖低股價的。

11. 講到尾，好簡單，股價夠平，咪做咯，9蚊買10蚊嘢。另外，你可以參考下工行（1398）當年私有化工銀亞洲（349）咁。頭先講過，私有化咗你一樣要守金管局嘅條例，但有一個好大分別：私家雞嘅，老母可以增資落去子公司，咁資本大咗咪做多啲生意。咁點解上市公司唔可以老母增資？因為要有75%公共持股嘛，渣到爆咪冇得再增。我私有化咗佢，咪唔使守75%嘅條例

12. 而燈燈燈燈！越秀咪正係渣到75%咯！

13. 另外留意，實際上越秀要買嘅，只係啲獨立小股東。唔係25%，而係16%。中間嗰9%去咗邊？就係廣州地鐵同廣州汽車都渣住啲股權，而呢兩間都係越秀姐妹公司（廣州市政府嘛），所以係「一致行動人士」，如是我聞（＊＊）

14. 最後可能有人問，「我提咗私有化金融海嘯，可唔可以反口」。答案係…….yes and no．我都唔知。喱文會覺得「好似買樓咁殺訂」「但簽晒紙就冇得反口」，或者講咩「合約精神」（＊＊＊＊）。實務上？「好難講」。我好奇怪，點解啲友就咁望下個新聞頭條，就可以決定埋「邊有得反口」「一日未畀錢一日都可以改變主意」。即係，你覺得律師收咁貴係做乜的？即使律師根本都答唔到你啦。早排都有單，Victoria Secret賣盤，傾完就肺炎，有人想彈弓手。真係打到法庭先知點先計　Material adverse change　點先叫Force majeure

（＊）Goodwill是也，每次我都鬧「商譽」呢個中文名不知所謂，亦差不多每次都有人出嚟講「官方係咁譯喎」，as if 我唔知咁。屌你，我咪就係屌個「官方」譯名不知所謂咯，當年啲師爺水平低，就唔鬧得？你幾撚多人真係以為「商譽」係brand value。Goodwill，就只係「溢價買嘢突咗舊嘢在Balance Sheet平唔到唯有搵舊嘢攝住個位遲下慢慢磨走佢」。學校冇教你呢？

（＊＊）當然我都好奇怪，「點解建行拆幾百億幾千億interbank就唔係關連交易呢？」「明明都係中央匯金」。又或者，「點解聯通 中電信 中移動啲高層可以打麻雀咁執位？明明都係工信部國資委，拎咗white wash冇？」（＊＊＊）

（＊＊＊）不過真係尋根究底嘅，「主權政府」一般係不受呢啲條款限制的，亦唔止係中國政府。

（＊＊＊＊）再講一次，呢個名詞夠晒混帳，唔知邊個發明出嚟的。你見鬼佬邊有呢個字？合約唔係匠人精神，你唔使尊重的，上法庭咯。

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月頭訂最抵！2021比別人知得多。subscribe now（https://bityl.co/4Y0h）。Ivan Patreon，港美市場評點，專題號外，每日一圖，好文推介。每星期6篇，月費80，半年已1600人訂！ 畀年費仲有85折
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普段自分の意思で決めている事を
今回はあらゆる場面で
「Siri」に決めてもらいました。
24時間のプチ旅行、どんな旅になるのか？

#24時間生活 #縛り生活

編集&撮影：しゅんしゅん
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腳本：
上個月我拍一集說 Last month I film this video 我錯了！ I was wrong! 恐慌不好,沒有錯 Panic is not good, true 但是 but 防疫不夠更糟糕！ Not enough prevention is worst! 糟糕到引發 Worst till the point to lead us to 西班牙末日！ The end of Spain! 世界末日 The end of the world 你準備好嗎 Are you ready? 還好，我已經有口罩 Okay, I already have masks 感謝我的朋友 Thanks to my friends 因為你們本來把口罩搶走 Because you took all masks away 搶光光 All of them  COW杯 cow-bei 看來 It seems 疫情很嚴重 The epidemic is serious 靠腰，陰屍路到了 It's "the walking dead " 在這部影片 In this video  我沒有辦法說這句話 I can not say this 因為YouTube 不會讓我賺錢喔 Because YouTube won't make me money 謝謝YouTube  Thanks to YouTube  COW杯 Cowbei 這次我要拍 This video  像一些人的 Like some guy's 比較短的影片 It's short 重點是 The point is 西班牙 Spain 我以前的國家 My previous country 輸給臺灣 Lose to taiwan 西班牙輸了 Spain lost 臺灣 Taiwan 幹得好 Well done  對，沒錯 Yes yes 親愛的朋友 My dear friends  西班牙很糟糕 Spain is bad 臺灣做得非常好 Taiwan is doing very well 我口乾有一點渴 My mouth is a little thirsty 爽 Cool 這個故事告訴我們什麼？ What did this story say? 在這樣 In  世界末日 The end of the world  的情況下 In this situation 恐慌 Panic 有幫助 Works 不要誤會啦 Don't get me wrong 我覺得恐慌是不好的 I think panic is bad 但是在這種情況下 But in this situation  如果你要選 If you need to choose 過度 Over  或是不足 Or insufficient 過度比較好 Over is better 什麼意思？ What dose that mean? 臺灣從一開始 Taiwan from the beginning 好熱 So hot 臺灣人就恐慌了 Taiwanese panic 搶口罩 Grab mask 引發我買不到 So me can't buy any 咳咳 (Coughing) 不是不是 No, no 是我暗示你們很cow杯 I hint you guys are very cow-bei 從一開始 At the first time  臺灣人一直在噴酒精 Taiwanese have been spraying alcohol 但是西班牙人 But the spanish 已經有很多人得病 Already many people got sick 還會去參加很多人的活動 And go to lot of people's events 引發連政治人物 Even politicians 都生病了 Are sick  都得了 They got it 不過西班牙人跟臺灣人 But the Spaniards and Taiwanese 有兩件事做得一模一樣 Two things are done exactly the same 一，政治人物用這個 First, politicians use this 來攻擊彼此 To attack each other 來互罵 Come scolding each other 都是蔡英文的假新聞 It's all fake news from Cai Yingwen 這個是國民黨扯後腿 This is the KMT pulling hind legs 對，西班牙更嚴重 Yes, Spain is worse  真的很cow杯 It's really bad 第二件事 Second 是在這個情況之下 Is in this situation 大家 People  愛 Love 搶衛生紙 Grabbing toilet paper 在臺灣 in Taiwan 民眾狂搶衛生紙 People fight for toilet paper 因為謠言指出 Because rumors point out 衛生紙與醫療口罩原料相同 Toilet paper is the same as medical mask 可能會影響衛生紙產量與價格 May affect tissue production and prices 歐伊系 Yummy 這個算是美食節目嗎？ Is this a food show? 趕快按讚啦 Hurry up and like 百萬YouTuber YouTuber with more than one Million subs 為什麼 why 大家 everyone 愛搶衛生紙？ Love fight for toilet paper? 有人可以幫我解釋嗎？ Can someone explain it for me? 沒有你、沒有你、沒有你 Without you, without you, without you 不能沒有你 Can't live without you 寶貝、寶貝！ Baby Baby! 這樣 is because 比較安全嗎？ Is it safer? 要不要這樣出門？ Should I to go out like this? 也不錯 Not bad 我要告訴你們一個秘密 I want to tell you a secret 今年的新希望 My new goal for this year was 是申請臺灣國籍 Apply for Taiwan nacionality 本來想要回去西班牙辦這件事 I wanted to go back to Spain to do this 現在我不知道什麼時候可以回去 Now i don't know when i can go back 但是有一件事 But one thing 很清楚 is very clear 無論如何 no matter how 我一定 I must 要變成臺灣人 To become Taiwanese 小英，妳聽到嗎？ Little Tsai, do you hear me? 拜託妳 Please 沒問題 no problem 哦給 OK 謝啦 Thanks 因為臺灣表現得很好 Because Taiwan is doing very well 我已經在做這件T恤 I am already making this t-shirt 你們可以告訴大家 You can tell everyone 臺灣安全 Taiwan is safe 你們不是從武漢來的 You are not from Wuhan 為臺灣驕傲 Proud of taiwan 這個就是 This is 靠，我愛台灣 的意思 The meaning of Damn I Love Taiwan 現在懂嗎？ Do you understand now? 不過，要繼續加油 But needs keep fighting 西班牙更加油 Spain need it even more 親愛的家人 Dear family 親愛的朋友 Dear friends 拜託 Please 保持安全 stay safe 不要出門 Don't go out 常常洗手 Wash hands often 吃健康 Eat healthy 多休息 Rest more 常常運動 Exercise often 這個是COW杯 This is Cowbei 我是黑素斯 I´m Jesus 掰 Bye 欸？靠T恤我忘記匯款 Eh? I forgot to do transfer for T-shirt 等我一下 wait for me 掰 bye 我一定 I must 要變成臺灣人 To become Taiwanese 黑素斯沒問題 Jesus, no problem

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以下為本段內容文稿：

我們對於自己狀態的判定，往往會影響我們看待自己的情緒；我們會認為自己是足夠好的，或者是不夠好的！

可是我們很少去檢視，這個所謂的「好」或「不好」，它的「前提」到底是什麼？我們用什麼樣的「標準」來看待自己？

而且更可怕的一點是，這個「標準」還有可能是被其他的事情所暗示的。那當然了，這個暗示可以大到我們的生存環境、我們的背景、我們的原生家庭。

它也可能小到，只是因為前面發生了什麼，而影響到我們後面怎麼看待我們自己，這什麼意思呢？跟你分享一個很有趣的研究。

有一個研究是這麼做的喔，研究人員想要了解「約會」對於「幸福」的重要性。所以呢，他向「未婚者」提出了兩個問題。

第一組問題，是先問未婚者說：「你最近有多幸福？」；而第二個問題，再問他們：「你上個月約會幾次？」

這樣的結果顯示哦，「約會次數」跟「幸福」之間，大概會有0.1的相關性。

所以我們稍微懂一點統計跟研究方法，你就會知道「0.1的相關性」這意味著，「幸福的感受」跟「約會幾次」，並沒有太直接的關聯。

可是接下來，研究人員更換了問題的順序。他先問未婚男女的第一個問題是：「你上個月約會幾次？」；而接下來才問他們：「你最近有多幸福？」

第二組問法問完之後喔，發現一個很有趣的現象，就是一個人的「幸福感」跟「約會」之間的關聯性，提升到「0.6」。

而「0.6的相關」，這可以說明「約會」對「幸福」有很大很大的影響。可是你稍微回神想一下，其實這兩個問題是一樣的。

只是第一組的問法，是先問你有多幸福，才問你有約會過幾次；而第二組的問法，是先問你約會過幾次，才問你有多幸福。

可是隨著「問法的順序」不一樣，你就會發現得到的結論，到底一個人的幸福感跟約會的相關性，它的差別就是從0.1，變成是0.6；從沒什麼關聯，到相關性很高。

所以透過這一層次的理解，我們不妨深思一下，現在的你，你感覺自己快樂嗎？你對自己有什麼看法？

不管你是持正面還是負面，你有沒有仔細去想一下，你用什麼框架來看你自己？然而這個「框架」到底從哪裡來的？

甚至於有沒有可能，你現在的心情不好，純粹的只是剛剛你接觸了一個很糟糕的訊息？

就像是有些人一回家先打開電視，先看政論節目；總是看著心情很不好之後，再擺個臭臉，再面對自己的家人；然後呢，他常常就會覺得家庭沒有溫暖。

那究竟是家庭沒有溫暖，還是你先打開了電視，你已經先被暗示了一堆垃圾跟負面情緒，所以你才會有這樣的反應跟詮釋呢？

那如果你今天回家之後，你告訴自己你第一時間不先打開電視，你先好好的跟家人相處、好好的聽他們說話、好好的跟他們分享你今天發生了什麼事。

至於分享完之後，你還是可以去看你的政論節目，但有沒有可能因為這樣子順序的改變；你對於家人、家庭溫暖的感受，會有很不一樣的理解呢？

所以我常常會覺得喔，在我們生命裡面會卡住我們的，有時候不一定是在那些表面上，看起來難以突破的困境；而是在於我們怎麼想這件事？

然而我們怎麼想這件事情，往往又來自於我們可能不假思索，我們在什麼樣的前提跟背景？

當你願意靜下心先去想，你的問題或你的困擾之所以成立，它是建立在什麼基礎上之後；這個時候，你才有可能去質疑這個基礎是否合理？

而且呢更重要的一點是，有很多時候，你一時半刻之間的情緒好或不好，很有可能是剛剛發生的事情影響著你。

那你又何必把它擴大，甚至於遷怒到那些你可憐的家人，或者是最愛你、最在乎的人呢？

所以呢，希望你透過今天的分享，能夠時時刻刻的提醒自己，去思考、去覺察，到底我在什麼樣的基礎底下，去認定某件事情是好的，或者是不好的？

然而當你在認定好或不好之後，你也可以做一個簡單的檢查；就是問問自己，在下這個結論，有這個感受之前的一小段時間，到底你看見了什麼、聽見了什麼？感覺到什麼、接觸到什麼？

盡可能把這些前置的混淆因素排除，這時候你所做的結論、這時候你告訴自己「事情就是這樣」，它會可靠更多更多。

希望你能夠活出一個獨立思考判斷的人生，也希望今天的分享，能夠帶給你一些啟發與幫助，我是凱宇。

如果你喜歡我製作的內容，請在影片裡按個喜歡，並且訂閱我們的頻道。別忘了訂閱旁邊的小鈴鐺，按下去；這樣子你就不會錯過我們所製作的內容。

然而如果你對於啟點文化的商品，或課程有興趣的話；無論是我們的線上課程，還是實體課程。

我們每一段影片的說明裡，都有相關的連結，我很期待能夠跟你一起學習、一起前進；謝謝你的收聽，我們再會。